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Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Grafton ND
National Weather Service Forecast for: Grafton ND
Issued by: National Weather Service Grand Forks, ND
Updated: 4:46 am CDT Jul 12, 2025
 
Today

Today: Areas of smoke. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.
Areas Smoke

Tonight

Tonight: Areas of smoke before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming south southwest in the evening.
Areas Smoke
then Partly
Cloudy
Sunday

Sunday: Areas of smoke after 11am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Areas Smoke

Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Areas of smoke before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Areas Smoke
then Partly
Cloudy
Monday

Monday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Slight Chance
Showers then
Chance
T-storms
Monday
Night
Monday Night: Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 9 to 13 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Showers
Likely

Tuesday

Tuesday: A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm.  Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. North wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Chance
Showers

Tuesday
Night
Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am.  Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Mostly Cloudy
then Slight
Chance
Showers
Wednesday

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm.  Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Slight Chance
T-storms then
Chance
Showers
Hi 80 °F Lo 61 °F Hi 84 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 80 °F Lo 58 °F Hi 73 °F Lo 51 °F Hi 69 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
Areas of smoke. Mostly sunny, with a high near 80. West northwest wind 7 to 13 mph.
Tonight
 
Areas of smoke before midnight. Partly cloudy, with a low around 61. West wind 5 to 9 mph becoming south southwest in the evening.
Sunday
 
Areas of smoke after 11am. Partly sunny, then gradually becoming sunny, with a high near 84. Southwest wind 10 to 17 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 26 mph.
Sunday Night
 
Areas of smoke before 8pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 58. West northwest wind 6 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Monday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 4pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 80. Northwest wind 6 to 11 mph becoming east in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Monday Night
 
Showers likely and possibly a thunderstorm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 58. East wind 9 to 13 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms.
Tuesday
 
A chance of showers, with thunderstorms also possible after 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 73. North wind 13 to 18 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
Tuesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 51. North wind 13 to 17 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph.
Wednesday
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1pm. Partly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 13 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.
Wednesday Night
 
A 20 percent chance of showers before 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 50. North wind 8 to 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.
Thursday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 69. North wind 8 to 10 mph, with gusts as high as 18 mph.
Thursday Night
 
Partly cloudy, with a low around 49. North wind 6 to 9 mph becoming west after midnight.
Friday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. West wind 7 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Grafton ND.

Weather Forecast Discussion
332
FXUS63 KFGF 120959
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
459 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Wildfire smoke will degrade air quality today, with an
  additional round Sunday.

- There is a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe thunderstorms
  Monday. The main hazards are hail, gusty winds, and flash
  flooding.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 417 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025

...Synopsis...

Upper level shortwave trough axis resides over the Northern
Plains, with post-frontal air mass filled with wildfire smoke
over the region. The shortwave trough will continue to migrate
eastward into the Upper Midwest and western Great Lakes region
today followed by generally northwest flow aloft. This will
continue to advect continental air mass originating within
Canada, bringing additional wildfire smoke Sunday. Additional
details on wildfire smoke and associated impacts found below.

Flow then turns more zonal as large upper low over the Hudson
Bay develops early next week. This will promote entrance region
upper jet dynamics to overspread the High Plains, promoting lee
troughing at the surface. This also will promote moisture
return from the south into the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
along with increasing instability and frontal development. With
forcing for ascent increasing within the region via
aforementioned dynamics and frontal development, chance for
showers and thunderstorms increases Monday and Tuesday.
Increased instability and flow aloft will introduce the
potential for strong to severe storms during this timeframe over
the Dakotas into Minnesota. More details on this found below.

As the Hudson Bay low develops further, there will be a tendency
for cooler, continental air mass to intrude over the region.
Ensemble guidance like ENS EFI is noting on higher probabilities
of below average temperatures between Wednesday and Friday.
Lows are currently forecast into the 40s at some locations
already. Drier conditions will also accompany this set up, as
well as additional chance for more wildfire smoke to infiltrate
the region.

... Wildfire smoke today and Sunday ...

Current visibilities and AQIs indicate very dense smoke still
over the region. VIIRS Day Night Band overnight pass also shows
smoke over the Dakotas into Minnesota. This will continue to be
the case today with gradual migration of smoke from west to
east. Smoke guidance hints at a brief reprieve in near surface
smoke tonight into early Sunday before another bout of smoke
behind a secondary cold front moves back into the region. Areas
like northern Red River Valley into Minnesota are relatively
more favored to see smoke impacts than other locations as
suggested by available smoke guidance.

Smoke is forecast to continue to be thick enough to increase
risk of adverse health effects to all populations today and
Sunday.

Smoke may mix with fog early this morning to further decrease
visibilities, perhaps becoming dense at times less than half a
mile. It is unclear just how reduced visibilities will become.
While low in confidence, cannot rule out smoke mixing with fog
to create locally severe reductions in visibilities, with
visibility near zero. Should this occur, this would pose
significant potential impact to travel conditions.


... Potential severe storms Monday ...

There is an emerging confidence in potential for severe storms
Monday. AI guidance like NCAR`s Pangu and Fengu Convective
Hazard Forecasts both highlight increased probabilities above
15% within portions of North Dakota into Minnesota Monday. While
the Storm Prediction Center highlights central ND into Devils
Lake basin with a level 1 out of 5 risk for severe storms,
confidence is low in location of severe storms due to important
synoptic and mesoscale details remaining uncertain. Moderate to
strong instability appears likely to build south of a
developing frontal boundary somewhere within North Dakota into
northern or central Minnesota. This coupled with sufficient
shear and increased lower level flow will allow for main hazards
to currently favor hail and gusty winds (although to what
degree remains uncertain).

Additionally, heavy rainfall leading to flash flooding is
possible as well. Current modeled guidance presents large swath
of 1-2 inches of rainfall over the Dakotas into Minnesota
Monday and Tuesday, with low probabilities of 3-5 inches already
showing up. Coverage of showers and thunderstorms may be
widespread given the slow moving and generally diffuse nature of
forcing for ascent in this type of synoptic pattern, but will
hinge upon other mesoscale factors like instability, boundary
orientation/location, and cloud- bearing flow. This lowers
confidence in coverage, location, and amount of rainfall. The
Weather Prediction Center currently has a level 1 out of 4 risk
for excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding over our region
for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1008 PM CDT Fri Jul 11 2025

Smoke will continue to be the primary aviation impact for the
TAF period. There will be a brief improvement overnight but
smoke will once again cover the region tomorrow, bringing
visibilities down to MVFR and IFR. Other than that, winds will
remain sustained around 12 knots by tomorrow afternoon with
periodic gusts to 20 knots at times until the sun sets late.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Perroux
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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