Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

475
FXUS63 KFGF 051600
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
1100 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick moving system Wednesday brings rain, wind and snow.
  There is a 20 percent chance for advisory level impacts from
  accumulating and blowing snow.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

Cloud cover is streaming into the area ahead of a quick moving
system. Guidance is still showing a chance for scattered snow
showers through late this afternoon, as well as gusty northwest
winds. Overnight fog has been limited to locations with the
highest snow pack from the previous system, mainly across parts
of Becker, Mahnomen, Clearwater, and Beltrami Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 303 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026

...Synopsis...

A strong and now occluded upper low continues to bring heavy,
wet snow into portions of northwest Minnesota this afternoon.
Significant impacts from heavy snow have been reported, and
continue through the afternoon. More details on these below.

With a fresh, wet snowpack that is currently succumbing to
melting both from air temperatures above freezing as well as
warming ground under sunny skies and April sun, dense fog is
possible tonight. This will mainly be tied to areas that can
maintain a light wind overnight, which is low in confidence
where exactly this will happen. This will likely be the case
over at least the next few nights/mornings as surface moisture
will remain increased concurrent with locally cooled air mass
over the degrading snowpack.

A quick moving, weak system will sweep a cold front through our
area tomorrow. This will bring scattered rain and snow showers
as well as gusty northwest winds up to 30 mph. This may result
in localized light accumulations up to 1 inch (for those who may see
snow in the morning), and/or drifting snow potentially leading
to isolated icy travel conditions during the daytime -
colloquially known as `drift and stick.`

Getting into mid next week, another quick moving system may
bring winter impacts, relatively better chances near the
international border. More details on this below.

Toward the end of the forecast period late next week into the
following, ensemble guidance strongly suggests a return to
southwesterly flow aloft. This will re-introduce active
precipitation pattern to the Northern Plains and/or Upper
Midwest. As of now more specific details are unclear other than
we increase our chance for a wetter pattern during this
timeframe.

...Noteworthy impacts and reports received...

We`ve received numerous reports 6-10 inches of heavy, wet snow,
with up to 16 inches reported in Ransom and southern Barnes
counties in ND. Due to the heavy and sticky nature of snow,
impacts have been exacerbated. These have included no travel
advisories and the closure of major thoroughfares like I-94
within North Dakota. Even in areas that have received less than
6 inches of snow (like Grand Forks), noteworthy impacts have
been reported. Reports received from snow maintenance companies
report that snow was very difficult to move around, stating
this snow as "nightmarish" due to the wet, heavy nature of
snow.

This heavy nature of snow also poses a health risk to those who
will be shoveling/moving snow. This is particularly true for
those with cardiac issues.

Real time power outage maps and reports received via social
media and partner calls/chats continues to reveal numerous
power outages in areas that have received over 10 inches;
again, this is due to the heavy and sticky nature of large snow
accumulations sticking to power lines and downing trees on power
lines.

...Additional heavy snow impacts this afternoon...

The strong and now occluded upper low continues to bring heavy,
wet snow into portions of northwest Minnesota this afternoon.
Additional accumulations will be minimal under 3 inches, thanks
to power of April sun and high moisture content of snow helping
compact and melt snow during the daytime hours. Despite minimal
additional accumulations, the combination of moderate to heavy
snow rates reducing visibility as well as large accumulation
already received will continue warning-type impacts in northwest
Minnesota. This will continue underneath the deformation zone
which continues to gradually propagate eastward and wane in
intensity within northwest Minnesota.

...Midweek system potential winter impacts...

Another quick moving system may bring winter impacts from
accumulating snow and reduced visibility. There is noteworthy
uncertainty in timing of this system as well as how well above
freezing temperatures will influence winter impacts (more likely
to mitigate them given well above freezing temperatures expected
ahead of this system as well as influence of April sun during
the daytime).

While snow accumulation potential seems to remain below 5
inches at this time, there is a scenario that juxtaposes
snowfall with increased winds. This introduces potential for
reduced visibility from blowing snow as snow is falling.

The combination of reduced visibility and accumulating snow
under 5 inches introduces a 20 percent chance for advisory-type
winter impacts Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 628 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026

VFR conditions prevail this morning at all TAF sites, with low
level wind shear expected as winds aloft shift to the northwest.
This is in response to a fast moving clipper system that will
also bring scattered snow showers to parts of the area through
late this afternoon. Winds are expected to increase out of the
northwest starting around midday, with gusts upwards of 20 to 25
knots through late this evening. Cloud cover will be scattered
to broken at MVFR to IFR levels, bringing the chance for varied
categories through much of the TAF period.

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...Lynch
DISCUSSION...CJ
AVIATION...Lynch