Grafton, North Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

033
FXUS63 KFGF 222335
AFDFGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Grand Forks ND
535 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

- There is a 40 percent chance for advisory impacts on Tuesday
  across portions of northwest Minnesota and northeast North
  Dakota, and a 20 percent chance for advisory impacts across
  parts of southeast North Dakota on Wednesday into early
  Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 225 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

...Synopsis...

Surface high pressure moves off to the east and southeast this
evening and overnight, with another night of cold temperatures in
store. Look for lows in the single digits below zero to teens below
zero, with wind chills as low as 30 below zero. The coldest temps
and wind chills will be in northeast North Dakota. Weak H5 shortwave
ridge moves across the region late tonight into Monday, which will
allow temperatures to rebound into the teens and 20s above zero by
mid afternoon. This will be ahead of a shortwave trough expected to
traverse parts of northeast North Dakota and northwest Minnesota
heading into Tuesday. Ensembles are in slightly better agreement
today, with increasing confidence in the possibility for light snow
accumulations across parts of the area. Another shortwave will
follow heading into Wednesday and Thursday, which is trending more
towards southeast North Dakota, and could bring another chance for
light snow. Much warmer temperatures return on Thursday and Friday
in response to another shortwave ridge; however, there are several
ensemble solutions that limit the residence time of this warm air as
it could be closely followed by a surge of Arctic air Friday
afternoon through the weekend.

...Winter Impact Potential Tues through Thurs...

Two systems will traverse the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest
Tuesday through Thursday. The first H5 shortwave will mainly impact
northwest Minnesota, with a lower chance for impacts in northeast
North Dakota and northern Red River Valley. At this time, there is a
40 percent chance for advisory impacts where the highest
probabilities exist for accumulating snowfall. For the Lake of the
Woods area, there is an 80 percent chance for 1 or more inches of
snow Tuesday, with those chances falling to around 30 percent for
the northern and central Red River Valley and northeast North
Dakota. Winds will be shifting to the northwest, bringing gusts to
near 35 mph, which could lead to blowing snow and visibility
impacts. Our second system brings additional chance for light snow
into southeast North Dakota late Wednesday into Thursday. Wind gusts
on Thursday morning will increase out of the west to southwest, but
are expected to remain generally less than 30 mph.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 535 PM CST Sun Feb 22 2026

VFR conditions are more likely to prevail the rest of the
evening across eastern ND and northwest MN as blowing snow
streamers and flurries are diminishing due to the sunsetting
(loss of daytime heating). There are still a few lingering
pockets of stratocumulus and flurries that are breaking up, but
may bring very brief/localized impacts early in the TAF period.
The loss of daytime heating is also responsible for decreasing
wind gusts, and with surface high pressure already building into
the region winds should become much lighter later this
evening/overnight.

There is a weak/spotty signal for MVFR stratus later
tonight/Monday morning, but the general trends in guidance have
been to show much drier low levels and favor VFR through
Monday. Winds shift to the southeast and increase once again
during the daytime period Monday and while patchy
blowing/drifting snow may develop, much drier air lowers the
chance for stratocumulus/flurries to develop. There may still
be brief/localized visibility impacts (3-6sm) but probabilities
for less than VFR conditions are low at TAF sites at this time
(less than 30%).

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...None.
MN...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Lynch
AVIATION...DJR